Résumé
2052 : Prévisions Mondiales pour les Quarante Prochaines Années est un rapport au CdR commémorant le 40e anniversaire des « Limites de la Croissance » écrit par l’un des quatre auteurs originaux. Cette prévision générale est « une estimation éclairée retraçant les grandes lignes de ce que je considère comme l’évolution mondiale probable d’ici 2052… la feuille de route mondiale la plus probable jusqu’en 2052 pour que je sache ce qui m’attend. » Depuis la publication des « Limites de la Croissance » en 1972, « l’humanité reste dans un solide dépassement… et nous pouvons discerner les premiers signes de la destruction progressive à venir de l’écosystème » (p.xv).
- Cinq grands enjeux à l’horizon 2052
- La fin du capitalisme incontrôlé : « une réponse lente et insuffisante à nos défis dominera » ; Le capitalisme à l’ancienne survivra dans certaines parties du monde, mais sera fortement modifié ailleurs ;
- La fin de la croissance économique : les progrès technologiques continus viendront partiellement à notre secours, mais le manque d’espace et de ressources bon marché obligera les solutions à faible empreinte écologique à s’adapter à la capacité de la planète de les accueillir ;
- La fin de la démocratie lente : la question fondamentale est de savoir si les démocraties s’entendront sur un État plus fort et une prise de décision plus rapide avant que nous ne nous heurtions au mur de briques d’un changement climatique auto-alimenté ;
- Conflit intergénérationnel : l’ère de l’harmonie générationnelle prendra fin, ce qui entraînera un ralentissement de la croissance économique et une réduction du gâteau à partager ;
- La Fin d’un Climat Stable : les impacts négatifs seront importants, mais pas désastreux avant 2052 ; il y aura plus de sécheresses et d’inondations, et le niveau de la mer sera plus élevé de 0,3 mètre; « Le changement climatique qui s’auto-alimente sera la préoccupation numéro un, les émissions de méthane provenant de la fonte de la toundra entraînant une nouvelle augmentation de la température, qui à son tour fera fondre encore plus la toundra » (p. 47) ; Le monde sera toujours opérationnel, mais avec des coûts d’exploitation plus élevés et des perspectives effrayantes pour le reste du 21e siècle.
« La grande question est de savoir à quelle vitesse la transition vers le développement durable se produira… La révolution du développement durable a commencé, mais en est encore à ses balbutiements » (p. 13). La transition exigera un changement fondamental d’un certain nombre de systèmes qui régissent l’évolution actuelle du monde. Les 40 prochaines années seront fortement influencées par la façon dont nous traiterons cinq questions centrales :
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